Saturday, March 7, 2020

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Vermont

Sanders' support in his home state was deep and broad. He dominated among his core groups, earning 68% of those 18-29 and "very" liberals alike, as well as nearly six in 10 independents. But Sanders also edged over Biden 39-28% among moderates and conservatives in the state. In a further demonstration of his home-state advantage, 46% of Vermont voters saw Sanders as the candidate best able to defeat Trump, the most in states with exit polls Tuesday.

Vermont stood in its support for a government-run single-payer health care system, backed by a broad 73%. About six in 10 in this group voted for Sanders, crowding out support for Warren, the other remaining candidate who'd campaigned for a single-payer system. (Warren and Biden won just 14% in this group alike.) On the flip side, Biden won 42% of voters who oppose a single-payer system.

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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at March 7, 2020 at 5:44 PM

[ANT] New comment on The View co-host Joy Behar says Trump is 'quiverin....

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Texas

Texas voters divided 35-31, Biden-Sanders, over which candidate was best poised to beat Trump, a sign of the closeness of the race in the state.

Hispanics accounted for 31% of the electorate, the largest share of Hispanics in any state, and Sanders won 45% of this group. Blacks accounted for an additional 21%, and Biden won this group with 60% support. Voters also were sharply divided over which candidate best understands the concerns of racial and ethnic minorities, 33-32%, Biden-Sanders, with a majority of blacks (60%) choosing Biden and 43% of Hispanics picking Sanders.

A record number of "very" liberal voters turned out – 24%, up from 20% in 2016 – and Sanders overwhelmingly won this group, with 52% support. But a majority of moderates – also 24% of the electorate – backed Biden, 53%. Sanders benefited from broad support among younger voters, winning 65% among those under 30 and 48% of those 30-44. Still, as in other states, Biden drew broad support among older voters.

Biden also may have benefited from late-breaking endorsements. Twenty-two percent say they made their vote choice in the last few days, up from 15% in 2016. These recent deciders broke 49% for Biden, following endorsements in the state by Klobuchar, Buttigieg and former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Sanders led with 36% support among those who decided earlier.

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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at March 7, 2020 at 5:44 PM

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Tennessee

As in other southern states, Biden was bolstered by blacks in Tennessee as well as a focus on electability. Forty-one percent of voters said Biden stood the best chance of defeating Trump in November, compared with 23% who said the same of Sanders. And it was a key concern; 60% preferred a candidate who could beat Trump over one who agreed with them on major issues.

About a quarter of voters were blacks; 53% of them chose Biden.

Biden also ran ahead of Sanders with the 48% who desired a return to Obama's policies. By contrast, Sanders led by more than 4-1 among the third of Tennessee voters who favored a more liberal turn. While Sanders prevailed over Biden by a narrow margin among independent voters (32-28), he was in a dead heat with Biden among liberals, each with 32%.

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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at March 7, 2020 at 5:43 PM

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Oklahoma

Biden was buoyed by broad support among moderates, seniors, mainline Democrats and those looking for a return to Barack Obama's policies. Biden won 46% of moderates – 22 points over Bloomberg and 33 points over Sanders.

Oklahoma had fewer liberals than any state to vote so far, a Sanders group. Biden also benefited from high turnout among seniors – they accounted for 35% of voters, among the most, and went for Biden with 48% support, with Bloomberg closest at 25%.

Biden won big among mainline Democrats, nearly two-thirds of voters, 45-21% over Sanders. And ties to Obama boosted Biden: Fifty-seven percent of voters who said they'd prefer a return to Obama's policies voted for Biden, with Sanders at a distant 16%. While as many voters preferred a change to more liberal policies, Sanders won them by a narrower 21-point margin.

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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at March 7, 2020 at 5:43 PM

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North Carolina

A desire to return to the policies of Barack Obama and broad support from black voters boosted Biden in North Carolina, while under 45s and "very" liberal voters backed Sanders. Bloomberg faced voter concerns about vast campaign spending from candidates' personal coffers.

Blacks made up 27% of voters, and like their counterparts to the south, they went strongly for Biden. It was a tighter contest among whites, who divided 31-25% between Biden and Sanders.

Fifty-six percent said they preferred to have the next president return to Obama's policies, higher than in any other state except Alabama. That group went for Biden by 55-17% Biden-Sanders.

Fifty-four percent of voters called it unfair for candidates to spend unlimited amounts of their own money on their campaigns, vs. 42% who call this fair. Bloomberg did 14 points better among those who called it fair.

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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at March 7, 2020 at 5:43 PM

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Minnesota

Klobuchar's exit from the contest Monday and subsequent endorsement of Biden paved the way for late-deciding voters to break heavily for the former vice president. Fifty-five percent decided their vote the last few days – the most of any state with exit polls tonight – breaking for Biden, 53%, vs. 19% for Sanders and 16% for Warren. Klobuchar's popularity helped her endorsement carry water; 76% of voters expressed a favorable opinion of her, with 48% of them supporting Biden vs. 21% for Sanders.

Views of electability also boosted Biden. Sixty-five percent of Minnesota voters preferred a candidate who can beat Trump over one who agrees with them on the major issues. Biden won nearly half (47%) of electability-focused voters, compared with 21% for Sanders and 17% for Warren. In a related question, 45% pegged Biden as the candidate best able to defeat Trump, 18 points over Sanders.

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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at March 7, 2020 at 5:42 PM

[ANT] New comment on The View co-host Joy Behar says Trump is 'quiverin....

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Massachusetts

Strong backing by moderates, seniors and late-deciding voters lifted Biden to victory in Massachusetts, followed by Sanders (backed by those younger than 45), then Warren, third in her home state. The three split voters in the progressive lane, with liberals dividing 33-28-27%, Sanders-Warren-Biden.

Timing played a considerable role in Biden's victory. Fifty-one percent of Massachusetts voters made their decision in the last few days, second only to Minnesota in states with exit polls today. They voted for Biden, 43%; Warren, 20%; and then Sanders, 18%. Biden also won a substantial 47% of voters 65 and older.

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Posted by Erin Burnett to ANT at March 7, 2020 at 5:42 PM